Investment Thoughts

See the "Introduction" page for a description of what this site is about. Recent updates are shown below.

25/06/09 D S Smith (SMDS) - Preliminary results

24/06/09 Imagination Technologies (IMG) - Excellent full year results. Share price up 34% on the day.

24/06/09 AT Communications (ATCG) - Shares suspended. Looks like the end of the road.

08/06/09 Pressure Technologies (PRES) - Interim results. Roughly inline but £4m hoped for order for 2010 in SE Asia has been lost. See the PRES page for a report on presentation to private investors by John Hayward CEO on Monday 15th June in Beckenham.

29/05/09 VP (VP.) - Prelim results.

26/05/09 Aveva (AVV) - Prelim earnings slightly below consensus but revenue ahead. Positive press comment. Price up 27% during 4 days following.

26/05/09 Interims for Holidaybreak (HBR) in line with management expectations.

13/05/09 AT Communications (ATCG) - further update plus Cenkos research note.

12/05/09 Dana (DNX) - Belated update of preliminary results announced on 30/03/09. Also details of Bow Valley acquisition, completed 30/04/09.

10/05/09 Lamprell (LAM) - Summary page and forecasts updated

09/05/09 Severfield-Rowen (SFR) - update with post-results forecasts.

09/05/09 AT Communications (ATCG) - update includes latest Cenkos forecasts for continuing businesses.

08/05/09 T Clarke (CTO) - agm statement, "positive start to the year".

30/04/09 Noble Investments (NBL) - strong interim results to 28/02/09.

29/04/09 Stanley Gibbons (SGI) - positive trading statement at AGM for Q1.

29/04/09 Fenner (FENR) - Interim results. Dividend maintained.

22/04/09 Senior (SNR) - Encouraging AGM statement. Q1 inline with expectations.

15/04/09 AT Communications (ATCG) - Preliminary results.

10/04/09 Norman Hay (HNN) - Preliminary results for year to 31/12/08.

07/04/09 Proactis (PHD) - Interim report. Solid results. Cost cut by 24%.

30/03/09 Lamprell (LAM) - Prelims. Divi cut. Order book reasonable but dwindling.

26/03/09 D S Smith (SMDS) - charts updated (no recent reports),

25/03/09 Severfield Rowen - Record results for 2008. Dividend maintained. Debt cut from £48m to £16m. Cautious but reasonable outlook.

20/03/09 Stanley Gibbons (SGI) - Unexciting results. Inventories up by £4.6m. Net cash down from £3m to £0.5m. Nevertheless, up 7.3% on the day.

19/03/09 T Clarke (CTO) - Very strong prelims, especially cash flow. Late cycle operator in construction sector but well positioned to weather the storm.

16/03/09 Clarkson (CKN) - Prelims. Very strong results and increased dividend but cautious about the immediate future.

16/03/09 TT Electronics (TTG) - Prelims - not very encouraging.

14/03/09 BG Group (BG.) - Just noticed that I overlooked their full year results announce on 5th February. Now updated.

13/03/09 Four of my holdings report next week; CKN and TTG on Monday, CTO on Thursday and SGI on Friday.

10/03/09 Weir (WEIR) - Record prelim results and strong order book. Cautious outlook.

10/03/09 SOCO (SIA) - Prelim results. Charts are limited to cash flow and funding at present. Awaiting meaningful forecasts for revenue and profit.

04/03/09 Stadium (SDM) - Prelims to 31/12/08. Dividend cut.

03/03/09 Senior (SNR) announced prelims yesterday. I like the look of them in spite of high gearing, pension deficit and exposure to auto industry! Full year charts have been uploaded. Fairly extensive comment is on the Summary sheet of performance charts.

03/03/09 Keller (KLR) also announced prelims yesterday. Excellent results. Company cautious about outlook (as usual).

27/02/09 Charter International (CHTR) - Preliminary results out today. They are thoroughly satisfactory in the circumstances, although the pension deficit has significantly increased. Share price is up 12.5% on a market down day.

26/02/09 Bodycote (BOY) - Preliminary results. Well received.

24/02/09 Morgan Sindall (MGNS) - Prelim results met expectations. Strong forward order book. Yield of well over 8% looks safe.

12/02/09 Holders Technology (HDT) - Prelim results released yesterday. Hard times predicted.

11/02/09 Clarkson (CKN) - now researched and uploaded. Exceptionally high cash conversion. High yield. Net cash.

10/02/09 Umeco (UMC) - Continuing the high yield theme. The outcome of this analysis and that of Melrose below demonstrates the importance of looking beyond dividend yield and cover. One swallows cash (UMC). The other has very high debt to ebitda and low interest cover.

08/02/09 Melrose (MRO). A difficult one to unravel from accounts due to corporate activity. Another high yielder of around 10%.

07/02/09 VP (VP.) New entrant (on watch).

06/02/09 Fenner (FENR) is another high yielding new entry. Significant debt but is well within financial covenants.

04/02/09 LAM now researched and uploaded.

01/02/09 Preliminary pages for Clarkson (CKN) and Lamprell (LAM). High yielding companies with no debt and well covered high yields.

21/01/09 Chemring (CHG) - Prelim results inline with expectations.

18/01/09 Morgan Sindall (MGNS). New entrant.

18/12/08 Goodwin (GDWN) - Outstanding interim results yesterday. PTP up 56%. H2 expected to be equally robust.

11/12/08 Imagination Technologies (IMG). Interim results. Pure Digital revenues maintained in spite of recession. Technology revenue up 10%. H2 should be interesting.

10/12/08 TMN interim results were poor. Market responded accordingly.

10/12/08 Pressure Technologies (PRES) - Prelim results well ahead of forecasts. Now updated with new forecasts from Brewin Dolphin.

03/12/08 DS Smith (SMDS) - Solid interim results in difficult environment.

02/12/08 Geong (GNG) - Interim results. Cash collection is now looking as though it could be a problem.

28/11/08 MS International (MSI) - interims reported yesterday. Excellent H1 for Defence. Forgings and Petrol Forecourts weak.

28/11/08 Holidaybreak (HBR) - prelims reported yesterday. Marked down in early trading due to reduced earnings, cut dividend and severe treatment of banks with regard to debt. However, cash flow remains strong and group looks set to survive the recession and emerge stronger than its competitors. Share price ended the day 5% higher and rose another 5% on following day.

20/11/08 Allied Gold (AGLD) - new Minesite article on research page

17/11/08 BG Group (BG.) - Q3 results. Value page updated.

16/11/08 BT Group (BT.A) - Interim results on 13/11/08. Interest cover getting thin at 3x. Consensus earnings cut by 20% and dividend by 50%. 10,000 jobs to go by next April. Share price up 12%!

15/11/08 Stanley Gibbons - link to another TMF discussion about rare stamps.

15/11/08 Vedanta (VED) - link to a summary of recent broker notes.

11/11/08 Aveva (AVV) - Interim results. Consensus earnings for 08 upgraded.

09/11/08 Vedanta (VED) - Interim results. See the "Summary" sheet for comment (opening sheet of charts).

07/11/08 Hornby (HRN) - Interim results

06/11/08 Noble Investments (NBL) - Prelims well received on a bad market day. See "Value" sheet for comment.

03/11/08 Chloride (CHLD) - good interim results. Price up 11% and another 9% on the following day.

03/11/08 Afren (AFR) - new financials page.

25/10/08 D S Smith (SMDS) - New entry. On prospective dividend yield of 12.75% with 1.75 cover on Hemscott consensus but see 'value' page for later forecast from Goldman Sachs with much reduced earnings (3p) in 09/10.

18/10/08 Charter (CHTR) - updated following recent share price decline.

17/10/08 TMN Group (TMN) - Preliminary results as of 5th Sept.

16/09/08 Geong International (GNG), Education Development (EDD), AT Communications (ATCG), Imagination Technologies (IMG), Hambledon Mining (HMB) and Tikit (TIK). Valuation pages updated to reflect lower share prices and forecast adjustments.

02/09/08 Proactis (PHD) - Prelim results. £0.5m loss due to £1.4m restructuring but very strong H2. Promising.

01/10/08 Corac (CRA) Market disappointed by delay to first field trial of Downhole Gas Compressor to Q1-09.

29/09/08 Stanley Gibbons (SGI) link to continuing discussion on TMF

24/09/08 Hambledon Mining (HMB) Interim results announced on 18/09/08.

23/09/0/ Norman Hay (HNN) Brewin Dolphin have reduced eps forecasts for 08 and 09 by 12% and 17% respectively. New figures and ratios are on 'Value' page.

19/09/08 Norman Hay (HNN) Decent interim results. Adjusted PTP up 7%. Very strong cashflow.

12/09/08 Goodwin (GDWN) Q1 figures shown on "Value" page. Earnings up 25%.

12/09/08 Northern Recruitment (NRG) Prelim results. Final dividend cut but cash spent on share buy-backs.

11/09/08 Tikit (TIK) interim results reported two days ago.

10//09/08 Nautical Petroleum (NPE). A Hardman research note suggesting ridiculously undervalued.

09/09/08 AT Communications (ATCG). Interim report. Down nearly 30% on the day.

09/09/08 Ithaca Energy (IAE) half-year results at 19/08/08